Monthly RUNdown time! Mortgage rates have been seesawing since my last update. Right now the national average Conventional 30 year fixed rate sits at 6.82%. 
Late June decline in Rates:
The lowering of interest rates in late June came on the back of two main data releases. The Consumer Spending Report came in softer than expected, as did the ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending Report. The market grew in confidence that inflation was taming and interest rates would start coming back down.
July increase in Rates:
The hopefulness of the above section was quickly walked back with the release of two new datapoints. The June Jobs Report was released on July 5th showing a continuing resilient labor market. Job numbers keep growing and unemployment remains at a comfortable level in the Fed's eyes. Just this week, the June CPI (Inflation) Report came in higher than expected, with year over year inflation at 2.7%. For reference, April was 2.3% and May was 2.4%, so the upward trend we're seeing is not being viewed favorably.
Fed Meetings:
In mid-June, the Fed held the Federal Funds Rate at 425-450 but hinted at a July cut that got the market excited. That has largely been walked back with Jerome Powell saying last week he would prefer to keep rates steady. The market is still pricing in a 4.7% chance of him getting outvoted on July 30th, but the overwhelming likelihood is another hold from the Fed. The mid-September meeting is starting to gain traction as the meeting they will "finally" cut rates. See the below chart of the current market expectations of upcoming rate cuts. While a rate cut will not directly affect mortgage rates because the market is set using future rate expectations, it generally helps the housing market pick up due to the positive press of rates falling.
Trump vs Powell:
In a relatively calm month, one prevailing story was the feud between the President and the Fed Chair. Trump wants the Federal Reserve Rate at 1% and wrote a letter demanding this to come to fruition. As you can see from the above chart we are not even in the same ballpark. While he just walked his comments back yesterday, Trump has hinted at firing Powell, a task that he currently isn't allowed to do. Stay tuned with popcorn ready!
Denver Market:
The primary headline in the Denver market is a seemingly ever-growing amount of supply. Redfin estimates a 42% seller surplus (4,800 more sellers than buyers) — their widest gap on record. While this data would point to a buyer's market, prices remain high from my perspective. I'm curious to hear what you think we'll see in the back half of this year! 
