Monthly RUNdown - June 2026

June RUNdown time! Here’s your monthly update on mortgage rates.

 

Over the past month, mortgage rates have stayed in a fairly narrow range, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage hovering between 6.4%-6.7%. We’ve seen some positive improvement in the last two weeks on the back of improving peace talks with Iran. Let’s dig into the news!

At its June meeting yesterday, the Federal Reserve left their interest rate unchanged. This was the first meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. The market must have been expecting more from this recent Trump-appointee because rates jumped ~0.07% after his press conference continued to emphasize that inflation remains above its long-term target, making it unlikely that rate cuts will happen until there is clearer evidence that inflation is moving sustainably lower. As of today, the market is pricing in 1 rate HIKE by mid-September.

Inflation remains the single biggest factor influencing mortgage rates right now. While inflation has improved from its peak levels, it remains more persistent than many economists expected. As a result, investors are adjusting expectations for fewer future rate cuts, which has kept upward pressure on Treasury yields and mortgage rates. Until inflation shows a more consistent downward trend, mortgage rates are likely to remain somewhat elevated.

The main reason for the decline over the last month is improving peace talks with Iran, and the subsequent expectation for lower oil prices. As mentioned above, because mortgage rates are closely tied to inflation expectations, movements in oil prices can have a surprisingly large effect on mortgage rates. While oil prices have moderated somewhat in recent days, the mortgage market remains sensitive to quick developments between USA/Iran.

Rates are likely to remain volatile but within a relatively predictable range (6.2-6.7%) in the near term. Most economists still expect some improvement in mortgage rates over the next 6–12 months, but the path lower may be slower than previously anticipated. Rather than trying to perfectly time the market, the buyers I’m working with are increasingly focusing on finding the right home and monthly payment, with the upside of refinancing later if rates improve.