Monthly RUNdown time. 30 year fixed rates are currently sitting at 6.00%. You read that right! It’s been a choppy month but as of today we’re at 3 year lows. Check out the chart below and read on for the “why”.
Fed Meeting:
At the end of January, the Federal Reserve had its first policy meeting of 2026. At this meeting, the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a pause in rate cuts. The committee emphasized they are cautious about inflation pressures that are still above the 2% target, even though economic growth and the labor market remain strong. As of today, the bond market is pricing in 1.3 rate cuts this year, with the expected first cut not coming until July.
Feb 11–13 Swing: Jobs & Inflation Data:
On Feb. 11, the U.S. jobs report for January surprised on the upside, showing stronger payrolls and an improving labor market. That initially pushed rates higher and dampened hopes for a spring rate cut. As the week progressed, attention pivoted toward inflation data and the CPI report (Inflation down to 2.4%!!) that showed inflation pressures may be easing. This helped rates drift down by Feb. 13.
On Feb. 11, the U.S. jobs report for January surprised on the upside, showing stronger payrolls and an improving labor market. That initially pushed rates higher and dampened hopes for a spring rate cut. As the week progressed, attention pivoted toward inflation data and the CPI report (Inflation down to 2.4%!!) that showed inflation pressures may be easing. This helped rates drift down by Feb. 13.
Tariffs:
The final drop that you see in the chart, just last week, came on the back of the Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariff policy. The tariff ruling adds another variable to the inflation/rate outlook this year. If tariffs, via import costs, create upward momentum on inflation, removing them could support more aggressive rate cuts later in 2026. Because of ongoing uncertainty around replacement tariffs, refund processes, legal fights, etc., markets haven’t treated the ruling as a catalyst to sharply lower rate expectations so far.
Refinances:
If your home loan is 7%+, let’s connect and see how much we can lower your payment. There is some market expectation that rates could drift into the 5.8% range in the back half of the year, but that outlook is far from guaranteed. There are a lot of moving parts right now and limited predictability given the current administration. Rather than trying to time the absolute bottom, I’d recommend identifying your target rate, typically about 0.75% to 1.00% below your current rate. When the market gives us that opportunity, it usually saves more money to act and start saving sooner instead of waiting for a perfect number that may never materialize. Please send me a quick note to get started and save some $$$!
Monthly RUNdown - January 15, 2026
