It's been a wacky month since I last gave you an update on interest rates. Usually, the scale on the right is 0.1-0.2%, so showing 6.5% all the way to 7.1% tells you all you need to know. I bet you can guess why the rise and fall, but humor me and read on! 
Tariffs:
The classic buzzword of 2025. You've likely seen the news so I won't drag on, but there was a massive bond rally in early April following the surprisingly large tariffs announced April 2nd. 54% on China as an example, which has continued to grow since. Investors took their money from the stock market into bonds as a "safe haven trade". With bond demand shooting up, yields/interest rates went down. The following week, the on-again-off-again tariffs went on pause for most countries for 90 days, causing many investors to take their money out of bonds. Gold went on a massive run as the new safe haven trade, and the stock market and bonds fluttered. Less demand in bonds means interest rates went up. This week we seem to be finding some reprieve as mortgage rates settle in near 6.85%, pretty close to where we were a month ago. Wild times!
Jobs:
Job data came in this last week beating expectations. 228k new jobs came in March, following just 111k and 117k in January and February. It's one bullet point showing the economy is still humming along. The good news was largely overshadowed by all the other news going on.
CPI (Inflation):
Inflation data came also came in last week at 2.4% which in a vacuum would be amazing news. We are getting closer to the 2% target and in theory, expectations would pick up for more rate cuts. Again, this news barely made the front page with all the other uncertainty causing commotion. See the chart below for the recent history of the CPI data. 
Consumer Sentiment:
The Consumer Confidence Index dropped for the fourth consecutive month and to its lowest reading in 12 years. The fall in confidence was driven by a decline in those 55 or older but was spread across income gaps. This decline is largely attributed to concerns over new tariffs leading to higher inflation and job insecurity, further impacting market dynamics.
Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy:
At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.5%. While the Fed acknowledged inflation risks associated with proposed tariffs, it highlighted economic uncertainty, leading to a cautious approach in adjusting interest rates. The market is back to pricing in 3 rate cuts, which explains why rates came down this week.
Local News:
I was excited to see an update on the Idaho Springs football field this week. I've driven by it for decades on i70 and have run the GTIS half marathon that finishes in the stadium, so I was curious to see it torn down. An 120 apartment complex will be going up to help alleviate housing shortages in the town. Now you can tell your friends that you know the inside scoop as you drive by. Read more here. 
I'd expect a wild couple months ahead as new policies continue to take shape. If you're sitting on the fence regarding a refinance, I think it's best to get everything ready to go and just sit until we see another big dip. We seem to get one every few months.
